Forecast on Windows Phone market share and revenue in 2013

The global mobile phone market has changed, since the day Apple enters the market on January 9, 2007.



In Q4, 2007, Nokia has more than 50% of global market share on smart phone with SymbianOS.

By Q1 2011, Google's Android has more than 50% of global market share, and Apple's iOS has 25% share.


Furthermore, Android grows from zero to 50% market share in just two and half years. This kind of technology evolution and adoption never happened in such a short time before.

With Microsoft and Nokia works together later this year, what are market shares in 2013?




I think what happened to Symbian in the past two years, will also happen to RIM. Microsoft and Nokia will also get some market share from Android as well. Also, from operators point of view, they don't like that internet giant dominating the mobile echo system.

According to some forecast, there will be 800 million units smart phone shipped in 2013. In that case, it will be 200 million Windows Phone, plus $15 per unit, the revenue for Microsoft will be 3billon dollar.

However, in fiscal year 2010, Microsoft recorded $62.5 billion of revenue and $18.8 billion of net income. If my forecast is correct, the revenue from phone will only be less than 5% of 2010's annual revenue.

Seems Microsoft needs to do more to boost the revenue from smart-phone area. Buying smartphone segment from Nokia to create a counterpart with Apple's IPhone? It do make sense, since XBox is doing great. why not create a XPhone then?